Thursday, November 13, 2008

"Now is a time when doing nothing is doing something"

A good day in the stock market:

Dow
8,835.25\+552.59\(6.67%)
S&P 500
911.29 \ +58.99 \(6.92%)
Nasdaq
1,596.70 \ +97.49 \(6.50%)

It makes me wonder when commentators on CNBC ask whether or not a stock is cheap. Cheap? Cheap? Prices today would have been considered inconceivable a year ago, unthinkable. Imagine the conversation a year ago asking if today's below bottom prices are cheap. Impossible, right?

Of course, we can hope for a big huge gap up in the averages. But if anything great happens, most say it likely won't happen until February or March, if then.

I do wish, by the way, for more use of the Global Dow Index as a benchmark. I will use it sometimes, but for today, I will say that there was a 911-point intraday range in the Dow.

Today, Larry Kudlow on CNBC based the theme of his show on the Dow, asking whether it has finally hit bottom.

Also on CNBC, Maria Bartiromo asked Richard D. Parsons, friend of President-Elect Obama, Chairman of Time Warner and Director of Citigroup to give a market outlook. He said that the trading today is technical, and that the market will descend for the next year or two.

This idea echoed again on CNBC by Daniel Frishberg of LafferFrishberg.com, who said that there might be a rally. He likened the stock market to a beach ball that has been held under water and will pop up but, like a beach ball, will then fall back down again. He says that P/E ratios have historically stayed lower than they are now, so they could go lower.

He also said that cash has now made 20% more than any other investment, so that "now is a time when doing nothing is doing something".

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